Category: Review
Economic Commentary: Q3 2019
Investment Directions - Staycation or Vacation? “Sell in May and go away” is an old maxim for investors. Evidence is mixed on its validity, but given this year’s rally, the temptation now is understandable. Our take: consider taking some profits and rotating into exposures that offer more resilience if volatility returns. Think of it as the investor version of a “staycation” and catch up on chores. With that in mind, our take on the major investor themes for the weeks ahead: U.S. Equities: Reverting to Technology We remain overweight U.S. equities, and one of our favored sectors is technology. Even with strong performance this year, we believe the sector remains appealing. Technology firms tend to have strong balance sheets and enjoy support from longer-term trends, attractive qualities in a late economic cycle. Furthermore, tech stocks have historically fared well through various yield curve regimes. Developed Markets: Europe Poised for Revival? Investors in Europe have had little reason for optimism for some time. But we expect European growth to accelerate this year given solid domestic demand. Valuations look attractive relative to history, although political and trade risks linger. China’s efforts to stimulate its own growth could help export-heavy economies, such as Germany. Emerging Markets: Brazil Waiting on Reform Brazilian assets have underperformed the broad emerging market index this year, despite signs that economic growth
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