Category: Stock
Market Commentary
We have been highly constructive on U.S. large-cap stocks in our investment strategies since October 2023. We remain optimistic generally into 2025, but as we enter fall, we think it is prudent to be slightly more cautious as some facts have changed over the last several weeks. First, our analysis of earnings surprises and estimate revisions has detected some cooling trends, suggesting potential moderation of the earnings advantages that catalyzed much of the rally this year so far. Our research also reveals the autumn period in October through mid-November in presidential election years has tended to be more volatile than usual, with increased vulnerability to downside moves. The elevated uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election adds additional complexity. Given the sharp divide in the parties’ expected policy and the expectations of a close race, many real economy actors are delaying major capital allocations and business-defining bets to after election night. In this state of uncertainty, any lack of market liquidity has the potential to trigger volatility. This may be compounded if the final outcome of the election is delayed, as we saw in 2020. Finally, recent changes in market temperament have also caught our attention and give us pause. Relatively tranquil gains in large-cap stocks for most of the year have been disrupted recently with larger single-day selloffs, rotations, and V-shaped snapbacks, which may be signs of a market more susceptible to headlin
Sell in May and Go Away: Two Market Myths to Avoid this Summer
by Jim Lineweaver, CFP®, AIF® There’s an old saying you’ve probably heard that says “Sell in May and Go Away.” But is that good advice? What’s the best thing for you and your investments over the historically slower summer months? The phrase “sell in May and go away” is thought to originate from an old English saying, and it turns out it did have some validity, at least from 1950 to around 2013. During that time, the Dow had an average return of only 0.3% during the May to October period, according to Forbes. But, since 2013 there’s good reason to believe that’s no longer the case. For example, the S&P 500 rose nearly 7% from the beginning of May 2017 through the end of October, according to YCharts. The blue-chip index was up 5% during May through October of 2016 as well. Another common myth is the October Effect, which is the perception that stocks tend to decline during the month of October. Most statistics go against the theory. Some investors may be nervous during October because the dates of some large historical market crashes occurred during this month. But fortunately, this seeming concentration of days is not statistically significant. From a historical perspective, October has marked the end of more bear markets than it has acted as the beginning. We try to help all of our clients keep these things in mind when making decisions, and don’t let these myths cloud their judgment.
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