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Look Back 2020 - Look Ahead 2021

By Lineweaver Financial Group
January 20, 2021 Category: Economy, 2021 Outlook, Economic Commentary

What a year - 2020! The market achieved record highs near year-end despite a collection of intertwined seismic events during the period - the worst global pandemic in a century, resulting in profound changes in our way of life, massive reactive policy shifts, presidential election controversy, warp-speed medical innovations, the most rapid materialization of a bear market on record, and among the largest and most rapid market recoveries in history. Yet, with the recent development and distribution of vaccines, accommodative and stimulative policies around the globe, and the likelihood of a divided US government; there looks to be light at the end of the tunnel and the prospects for global economic recovery appear to be on the upswing setting the stage for a constructive and hopefully more normal 2021. While the market ended up for the year, 2020 was marked with intense volatility. Reacting to the most profound health crisis in a century, the year featured the onslaught of the most rapid

HealthWatch

By Lineweaver Financial Group
January 20, 2021 Category: Health, Sleep, Healthy Living

As the new year rolls in, many might be thinking about being a healthier version of themselves. Here are some of the many benefits of having a healthy diet: 1. Heart Health According to the AHA, American Heart Association, half of all adults living in the U.S. have some form of cardiovascular disease. By eating foods that are high in fiber, you can help improve cholesterol and can help reduce the risk of heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes. 2. Better Mood There is evidence to suggest that there is a close relationship between the food we eat and the moods we experience. Some researchers found that diets with a high hypoglycemic load can even trigger increased symptoms of depression. 3. Improved Gut Health A diet that is rich in vegetables, fruits, and whole grains can help the good bacteria thrive in the colon. Eating foods such as yogurt, kimchi, and sauerkraut are rich in probiotics to help promote a healthy colon. 4. Improve Memory A healthy diet can even help you maintain

Economic Commentary Q1 2021

By Lineweaver Financial Group
January 20, 2021 Category: Economy, Economic Outlook, Economic Commentary

We have entered a new investment order. The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated profoundshifts in how economies and societies operate. We see transformations across sustainability, inequality, geopolitics and macro policy. This is reflected in our 2021 investment themes: The New Nominal, Globalization Rewired, and Turbocharged Transformations. The new investment order is still evolving, and investors will need to adapt. Yet the features are becoming clear, and we believe this calls for a fundamental rethink of portfolio allocations starting now. The New Nominal We see stronger growth and lower real yields ahead as the vaccine-led restart accelerates and central banks limit the rise of nominal yields even as inflation expectations climb. Inflation will have different implications to the past. Strategic implication: We underweight government bonds and see equities supported by falling real rates. Tactical implication: Our low rate outlook keeps us pro-risk. We like U.S. equities and prefer

The Markets Don't Pick Sides

By Lineweaver Financial Group
October 19, 2020 Category: Markets Don\'t Pick Sides, Newsletter

While Covid-19 has largely stolen the headlines this year, we expect an increasing focus on the presidential election as we enter the end of the year. In dealing with extreme uncertainty, we find looking to history can often be the best starting point to understand what comes next. Since 1926, the average annual return of the S P has been about 10%, whereas in presidential election years, the market has historically performed slightly better at just over 11%. During election years where the current President has been re-elected, or a different President from the same party has been elected, the S P 500 averaged growth of 16%. However, when the parties switch, the return averaged just 5%. One of the reasons for this is very simple the fact that markets dislike change or the unknown. But generally, it seems more likely to us that the Presidency switched parties because the economy wasnt particularly strong, rather than the Presidential campaign driving the market. Its good to recall

Economic Commentary 2020Q4

By Lineweaver Financial Group
October 19, 2020 Category: Economic Commentary, 2020Q4, Newsletter

Many positive signals appeared in the quarter. Millions of Americans went to work again; monthly net job growth topped 1.7 million in July and 1.3 million a month later. Unemployment, which had hit 14.7% in April, fell from 10.2% in July to 8.4% in August, and the U-6 rate counting both underemployed and unemployed Americans declined from 16.5% to 14.2%.1,2 Consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Boards monthly index, leaped to 101.8 in August from 86.3 in July. Households kept up their buyingretail sales were up year-over-year through August even though supplemental unemployment benefits expired at the end of July.1 Industries also grew, according to research from the Institute for Supply Management. When ISMs Monthly Purchasing Manager Index for the manufacturing and services sector surpasses 50, those sectors are judged by ISM to be expanding. ISMs services PMI was at 58.1 in July and 56.9 in August; its manufacturing index reached 54.2 in July (a month that saw a 6.4% rise

HealthWatch 2020Q4

By Lineweaver Financial Group
October 19, 2020 Category: HealthWatch, Newsletter

In light of the coronavirus, many are taking steps to ensure everything they touch is clean and sanitized. This is even more true when it comes to our kitchen, a place where we are constantly handling foods. Its hard to know what products or methods are effective and which ones arent. 1. Gas Stove Its important to make sure you are cleaning your gas stove after every meal with either soap and water or detergent and water. A gas stove is an area in your home that can become a breeding ground for infections over time, if not regularly cleaned. 2. Kitchen Counters and Slabs Many keep their fruits, vegetables, and other ingredients on their counters or slabs before being washed. Its recommended that you keep this area particularly clean with a mixture of salt and lemon water. 3. Fruits and Vegetables When it comes to items we are consuming, we want to be especially sure it has been cleaned properly to lower the risk of contamination. Trying to find a cleaning product for our fruits and vegetables

Cracking the Medicare Code

By Lineweaver Financial Group
October 01, 2020 Category: Medicare, Medicare Supplements, Retirement, General

Open enrollment for Medicare and Medicare Supplements is right around the corner. Medicare programs are notoriously challenging to navigate, but its a crucial decision that most of us will have to make at some point in our lives. The question most people start with is one of eligibility. There are two essential parts to Traditional Medicare, Parts A and B. Part A has to do with hospitalization, and you become eligible on the first of the month for your 65th birthday. If you become eligible for Part A, its recommended to enroll immediately because there is no premium. This remains true even if you are still working and have health insurance through your job. It will get you into the system, and youll start receiving Medicare You. On the other hand, part B has to do with doctor visits and bills, including medically necessary services or preventive care. Its recommended that you enroll with the Social Security office about 2-3 months prior to when youll be looking to receive the full

Market Challenges and the Coming Election

By Lineweaver Financial Group
September 10, 2020 Category: General, Market, Election

Key Points Challenges include elevated virus transmissions, high unemployment levels, the Presidential election and stretched valuation metrics Monetary and fiscal policy combined with vaccine developments are likely to continue to support risk assets 2020: A Historic Year 2020 will be remembered as the year the coronavirus severely tested the basic freedoms and tenets of capitalism in the United States. The virus has proven to be highly efficient in disrupting many of the daily routines we typically take for granted. Like an engine needs clean oil to operate smoothly, the free movement of people, goods, and capital are key lubricants capitalism needs to operate smoothly. The virus is near-perfect friction to this free movement. As we have witnessed, businesses and education systems have difficulty functioning without free movement. Unfortunately, we have also felt the human tragedy the virus has created with nearly 775,000 deaths globally,5 a number that will sadly go higher. For

Q2 and Three Steps to Take

By Lineweaver Financial Group
August 06, 2020 Category: Strategies, Volatile Market, General

The second quarter of 2020 is unlike any other. Weve been in the midst of a global pandemic that led to the stay-at-home mandates that caused a sharp, deep recession and left nearly 20% of Americans unemployed1. In May and early June, after many thought the curve of new coronavirus cases had been successfully flattened, economic reopening occurred across the country. However, within weeks the virus spread and the US entered the July 4th weekend reporting record numbers. With some progress reportedly being made on several treatments and potential vaccines, many people have started pricing risk assets as if the worst of impact from COVID-19 is over. This was before the onset of what many are calling the 2nd wave of new coronavirus cases, causing many to question the pace of any economic recovery. With expectations that the Federal Reserve will do whatever it takes to support the economy and risk assets investor attention has turned to Congress, as the $600 weekly unemployment benefit

Economic Commentary 2020Q3

By Lineweaver Financial Group
July 16, 2020 Category: Economic Commentary, 2020Q3

Summer is here: Making lemonade out of lemons The great poet Ralph Waldo Emerson famously wrote, Do what we can, summer will have its flies. As we head into the summer months, this mood may best describe nervous investors who recently experienced large bouts of market volatility due to the spread of the coronavirus. The SP 500 Index fell 34% from its all-time high reached on February 19 to its low on March 23. While it has recovered since then, we are seeing global economic activity reflects the implementation of mandatory shelter-in-place policies. Simultaneously, extreme moves in the oil market with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil futures prices at one point trading in negative territory due to fears of oversupply caused additional distress in markets. Globally, central banks and governments stepped up to provide unprecedented levels of stimulus measures on both the monetary policy and fiscal fronts. We see three investment implications from this stimulus. First, we would like

Economic Outlook

By Lineweaver Financial Group
July 16, 2020 Category: Economic Outlook, Q3, 2020

The second quarter of 2020 was one for the history books. COVID-19 caused a global pandemic that led to deaths in more Americans than the wars of Vietnam, Korea, and the Gulf Wars combined, and led to stay-at-home mandates that caused a sharp, deep recession in Q2 when nearly 20% of Americans were unemployed.1 In May and early June, after many thought the curve of new coronavirus cases had been successfully flattened, economic reopening occurred across the country. Within weeks the virus spread, however, and the US entered the July 4th weekend reporting record numbers of new cases of over 50k/day.1 This is double the rate seen in mid-May with total cases now totaling 2.8m, up from 200k cases at the end of Q1.1 Reopening plans have been rolled back in many states. Generally, the level of uncertainty regarding the virus is growing, not falling. Despite this environment, risk assets enjoyed strong rallies throughout the quarter, leading to discussions of the disconnect between Main Street

HealthWatch: Probiotics

By Lineweaver Financial Group
July 16, 2020 Category: HealthWatch, Probiotics

Are you currently taking probiotics to improve your gut health? New research from the American Gastronenterological Association is showing that it might not be as helpful as we are led to believe. Since researchers started to learn more about our gut bacteria, or microbiome, probiotics have become more popular. Yogurt and dietary supplements contain certain bacteria and yeast, which are organisms found in probiotics. Depending on your location, you can find probiotics sold over the counter or by prescription. Since probiotics are not considered drugs in the United States, they arent regulated in the same way as other pharmaceutical products. This can lead to an increase in misleading information and has acted as a barrier to scientific research when it comes to how helpful probiotics actually are. For example, research has found there isnt enough evidence that suggests the use of probiotics to treat Crohns disease, ulcerative colitis, or IBS. The American Gastronenterological Association

Letter from the President Q3

By Lineweaver Financial Group
July 16, 2020 Category: Letter From The President

One of the many challenges posed by COVID-19 is the end of the year celebrations for new grads. In the Lineweaver household, this has been especially difficult for my eldest daughter Tori, who graduated this year from Miami of Ohio! Kathy, myself, as well as Tyler and Delaney, could not be more proud of Tori and her success. I was lucky enough to have her join me for two of our weekly Financial QuarterbackSM segments, to talk about financial concerns and strategies that all new grads should consider. The first thing Tori and I talked about is that choosing the right benefits is an important first step. Some new graduates might be able to stay on their parents health insurance until the age of 26, which can help save on some of the initial costs. If not, make sure to look over all the options to find the right insurance that fits your needs and budget. Many jobs will also give you options when it comes to life insurance and disability. When youre young something such as disability or life

5 Steps to Transitioning into a Successful Retirement

By Lineweaver Financial Group
July 14, 2020 Category: Retirement, General, Steps

Are you looking to start the transition into retirement? If so, we have prepared 5 critical steps to take into consideration when transitioning into this new chapter of your life. When preparing for retirement there are plenty of important decisions running through your mind. We have compiled these steps in order to help guide you along the way. Step 1: Plan for Increasing Healthcare Cost When it comes to healthcare, you have to be prepared for what could happen in the future. Fidelity does a study every year into the average cost of healthcare for a couple who is aged 65 and retiring. In 2019 it was estimated they will need $285,000 for healthcare and healthcare-related costs. This cost, unfortunately, will only increase significantly each year. Step 2: Consider Long-Term Care According to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 70% of people aged 65 or older are likely to need long term care at some point. With such a high percentage of people in need of long-term care,

4 Helpful Strategies During this Volatile Market

By Lineweaver Financial Group
June 18, 2020 Category: Strategies, Volatile Market, General

Since the onset of COVID-19 in February, weve seen record volatility in the financial markets. But, its time in the markets, rather than timing the markets that will ultimately help set you up for success over the long-term. Here are a few strategies to help you keep your cool, remain invested, and weather the storm. First, consider using income-focused strategies to help weather todays uncertainty. When investing in individual stocks, its important to use caution for growth purposes or when you are nearing retirement. Normally, its best to employ a combination of different tools, including bonds or fixed income, based on your financial goals and time horizon. Secondly, remember that planning now could save you and your family hundreds of thousands of dollars later. One of the major changes of the past year is the elimination of the stretch IRA. This rule changes the way your heirs are able to receive inherited funds. Before the change, you were able to spread the inherited money

Strategies to Help Maximize Income and Minimize Taxes

By Lineweaver Financial Group
May 21, 2020 Category: General

Were all going through a situation with no precedent right now, and it can feel challenging to take any action. But, we believe that there are some important tax strategies that can help you navigate during these challenging times that may not only help you weather the current storm but set you up for success down the road. One strategy we recommend for our clients is tax-loss harvesting, which involves selling an investment that has lost value, replacing it with similar investment, and then using the investment sold at a loss to offset any realized gains. This can help investors minimize any taxes they may owe on capital gains or their regular income. It can also improve overall investment returns. This strategy, however, can only be applied to taxable investment accounts, including retirement accounts like IRAs and401(k). Another strategy can be a Roth conversion. Converting retirement savings from pre-tax to Roth accounts has become less expensive for many investors because of the

Economic Commentary 2020Q2

By Lineweaver Financial Group
April 07, 2020 Category: Economic Commentary

The COVID-19 virus has made a brief global recession likely. While the duration of the virus pandemic is unpredictable, policy stimulus, pent-up demand and a lack of major imbalances argue for a solid upswing when the virus threat clears. The containment measures being taken across the globe to combat the virus will have a large economic impact. Global gross domestic product (GDP) growth will probably be negative in the first quarter and will enter the second quarter at risk of contracting further. Provided the virus is transitoryperhaps contained in the second quarterthe global economy should be poised to rebound in the second half of 2020. The combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus on top of last years global central-bank easing, in addition to the reduction in China-U.S. trade tensions, argues for a solid recovery when the virus threat recedes. In the U.S., the governments virus containment measures mean a technical recessionnegative GDP growth in Q1 and Q2seems likely.

HealthWatch: Health and Nutrition Tips

By Lineweaver Financial Group
April 07, 2020 Category: General, Health, Nutrition

With the media being such a large part of society, its hard to know when information is accurate orwhen its a fabrication. This is extremely common in the world of health, and we often receive conflicting information about the best way to maintain a healthy lifestyle. Below are just a few health and nutrition tips backed by science for these difficult times. 1. Avoid sugary beverages Its often convenient to grab a sugary drink when we are in a rush, or even when we are out to dinner. But consuming these drinks can have consequences, such as type 2 diabetes and heart disease. Its best to drink something that is low in sugar. 2. Dont fear coffee While too much of anything is never a good thing, coffee is actually high in antioxidants and can help reduce the risk of Parkinsons and Alzheimers diseases. 3. Get enough sleep Sleep is extremely important for our mind and body in order to function properly. When our bodies dont get enough sleep it can drive insulin resistance, disrupt appetite

Letter from the President

By Lineweaver Financial Group
April 07, 2020 Category: General, Letter From The President

First, let me say the obvious: these are truly unprecedented times we are living through. Second, we appreciate how calm our clients have been. While everyone is feeling the anxiety and challenges of these times, I am truly impressed by everyone that I have spoken with. Please know that we will continue to closely monitor the markets, the economy, and your portfolio, and take action when we need to in order to best protect your hard-earned money. One of the conversations I am having with many of my clients is simply a reminder that the equities part of your portfolio is really meant for a 3-5 year timeline. For immediate money needs, weve layered in other strategies that are much less volatile, and which should offer you protection in the short term. We often hear from clients that other advisors that theyve had are more reactive, while we strive to be more proactive. We think that was the case this time as well. To take advantage of the strong market in 2019, we rebalanced in early January

What the $2 Trillion CARES Act Means for You

By Lineweaver Financial Group
April 01, 2020 Category: General, CARES, CARES Act, Stimulus

The CARES Act was signed into law on March 27th, 2020, and is designed to ease the financial burden placed on individuals, businesses, and other organizations created by the coronavirus, otherwise known as COVID-19. The bill separates into two distinct areas programs and protections for individuals, and programs and protections for businesses and other organizations. Below, well outline the main outcomes of the bill in each area. Keep in mind that this legislation has just passed, and everyone is rushing to interpret the 830-page bill. Its likely that the outcomes and interpretations by the various government agencies may change in the coming months, but heres what we know now. Programs and Protections for Individuals Direct Payments: Americans who pay taxes will receive a one-time direct deposit of up to $1,200, and married couples will receive $2,400. In addition, you can receive $500 per child. For individuals, payments are phased out starting at $75,000 in adjusted gross income

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