Actively Managed Portfolios at Lineweaver
By Chad Roope, CFA®, Chief Investment Officer
We recognize that the market is currently experiencing turbulence and volatility not seen in several years. Given the strong returns we experienced in 2023 and 2024, the instability of the last week feels particularly unsettling for most of us. Given this volatility, we’ve made recent trades and rebalanced our clients’ portfolios.
Despite the current uncertainty, we anticipate that 2025 will be a reasonably good year for stocks. Our belief is that we will finish the year with returns in the mid- to upper-single digits. Over the course of the year, however, we expect the markets to be much more volatile than what we have experienced over the past few years.
Our belief that the economy is still fundamentally strong has three supporting points. The first is earnings, which are growing at a strong rate. In addition to good earnings, we're beginning to see the market broaden beyond just a few top tech stocks. Many other stocks are also trending higher as we enter 2025. Finally, while there’s a great deal of uncertainty in terms of policy, tariffs, trade deals, and other changes in Washington, we also think that these changes – and the volatility that comes with them – are creating opportunity.
Within our clients’ investment accounts, we've recently rebalanced our strategies. Some of the things that did so well last year were slightly above our target weights, leading us to trim those down to target weights. The things that didn’t do as well last year that we think can do well in 2025 were brought in line with our targets as they were a touch underweight.
We also trimmed some of our foreign stocks. We have been slightly underweight in foreign stocks overall, but they have performed quite well this year. Both European and Japanese stocks are positive for the year. We believe that the current performance of international stocks may not hold up when compared to U.S. stocks. As a result, we've slightly reduced our allocation to international stocks and increased our investment in U.S. stocks. Additionally, we've enhanced our exposure to diversifying asset classes, as we find fixed income to be particularly attractive this year.
We continue to believe that stocks are likely to do better than bonds this year, and that the U.S. is likely to outperform international stocks this year. Our focus continues to be on large-cap growth stocks. Although they have been out of favor in recent months, we believe they will finish the year on a strong note.
In sum, we know that it feels challenging right now. There’s a lot of volatility in the market, and we can expect to see more of it throughout the year. However, we urge you to stay the course with us. We will remain disciplined, rebalancing our approach and focusing on the data. If the facts change, we may reevaluate our stance, but at this moment, we still believe that the U.S. is a strong place to invest, and we continue to favor large-cap stocks and overall quality stocks.
Finally, know that our overall positioning will not change much, even with the actions we’ve taken. We think the U.S. economy is still solid, and markets are likely to do quite well toward the end of the year.
Whether we already manage your portfolio or you’re looking for a fresh perspective, we’re here to help. If you would like to discuss how our approach can benefit your portfolio, schedule a no-cost, no-obligation meeting with one of our advisors today.
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Case studies are intended to illustrate the types of financial issues faced by actual clients. They should not be construed as a testimonial for or endorsement of Lineweaver Wealth Advisors. They do not represent the experience of any advisory client. Each client’s situation is different, and their goals may not always be achieved. Lineweaver Wealth Advisors, LLC, is not engaged in the practice of law or accounting. Tax information provided is general in nature and should not be construed as legal or tax advice. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. Tax rules and regulations are subject to change at any time.
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