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Economic Outlook

Posted By Lineweaver Financial Group
July 16, 2020 Category: Economic Outlook, Q3, 2020

The second quarter of 2020 was one for the history books. COVID-19 caused a global pandemic that led to deaths in more Americans than the wars of Vietnam, Korea, and the Gulf Wars combined, and led to “stay-at-home” mandates that caused a sharp, deep recession in Q2 when nearly 20% of Americans were unemployed.1 In May and early June, after many thought the curve of new coronavirus cases had been successfully flattened, economic reopening occurred across the country. Within weeks the virus spread, however, and the US entered the July 4th weekend reporting record numbers of new cases of over 50k/day.1 This is double the rate seen in mid-May with total cases now totaling 2.8m, up from 200k cases at the end of Q1.1 Reopening plans have been rolled back in many states. Generally, the level of uncertainty regarding the virus is growing, not falling.   Despite this environment, risk assets enjoyed strong rallies throughout the quarter, leading to discussions of the disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street. Backed by massive monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve, fiscal stimulus from the Treasury, some early success in the reopening and hopes for a vaccine, US stocks had their best quarter since the fourth quarter of 2008.1 US stocks were again led by the large-cap Technology and other popular growth stocks, leading to concerns of narrowing market leadership that has some resemblance to the dot.com period of the late-90’s.  After falling 35% i

Economic Commentary: Q3 2019

Posted By Lineweaver Financial Group
July 02, 2019 Category: Economic Commentary, Review, Q3

Investment Directions - Staycation or Vacation? “Sell in May and go away” is an old maxim for investors. Evidence is mixed on its validity, but given this year’s rally, the temptation now is understandable. Our take: consider taking some profits and rotating into exposures that offer more resilience if volatility returns. Think of it as the investor version of a “staycation” and catch up on chores. With that in mind, our take on the major investor themes for the weeks ahead: U.S. Equities: Reverting to Technology We remain overweight U.S. equities, and one of our favored sectors is technology. Even with strong performance this year, we believe the sector remains appealing. Technology firms tend to have strong balance sheets and enjoy support from longer-term trends, attractive qualities in a late economic cycle. Furthermore, tech stocks have historically fared well through various yield curve regimes. Developed Markets: Europe Poised for Revival? Investors in Europe have had little reason for optimism for some time. But we expect European growth to accelerate this year given solid domestic demand. Valuations look attractive relative to history, although political and trade risks linger. China’s efforts to stimulate its own growth could help export-heavy economies, such as Germany. Emerging Markets: Brazil Waiting on Reform Brazilian assets have underperformed the broad emerging market index this year, despite signs that economic growth

Healthwatch: Tips for Lowering Your Risk of Dementia

Posted By Lineweaver Financial Group
July 02, 2019 Category: Dementia, Healthwatch, Health, Q3

There's no effective treatment for dementia, which affects 50 million people worldwide, but the World Health Organization (WHO) says there's much that can be done to delay or slow the onset and progression of the disease. In May, WHO issued the following recommendations to reduce the risk of dementia globally, and combat cognitive decline: Regular physical exercise Don't use tobacco Drink less alcohol Maintain a healthy blood pressure Eat a healthy diet, particularly Mediterranean foods Avoid dietary supplements such as Vitamins B and E WHO said there are 10 million new cases of dementia every year, and this figure is set to triple by 2050. The disease is a major cause of disability and dependency among older people and "can devastate the lives of affected individuals, their careers and families," the organization said. Although the report stressed that social participation and social support are strongly connected to good health and individual well-being, it said there was insufficient evidence linking social activity with a reduced of risk of dementia.  Experts said that the advice issued by WHO was comprehensive and sensible, but some cautioned that the evidence that these steps would reduce dementia risk was not always strong. "Keep on doing the things that we know benefit overall physical and mental health, but understand that the evidence that these steps will reduce dementia risk is not strong," Robert Howard, a professor of old a

Q3 2018: Economic Commentary

Posted By Lineweaver Financial Group
July 06, 2018 Category: Q3, 2018, Economic Commentary, Market Review

Global financial markets posted mixed results during the second quarter of 2018 as investors balanced strong earnings, an improving labor market and better economic growth here in the U.S. with political turmoil in Europe and deteriorating trade relations worldwide. We present a few highlights from the 2Q18 below: Despite heightened geopolitical rhetoric, the S & P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite continued to trade near record highs amid positive economic data and strong corporate earnings. On the economic front, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in June to a range of 1.75% to 2%, and upgraded their assessment of U.S. economic growth. Consequently, the FOMC now anticipates raising interest rates four times in 2018.   Developed international equity markets produced mixed results during the second quarter on political turmoil in Spain and Italy, and rising trade tensions with the U.S. Gains came out of Europe, while the Pacific region lagged. On the political front, the prospect of new elections in Italy and a vote of no confidence against Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy renewed fears of a Eurozone breakup. In the emerging markets, returns were held back by weak performances from Latin America heavyweights Brazil and Mexico.   Within fixed income, results were mixed as the Fed raised interest rates and the U.S. dollar rose sharply against most major currencies. The 10-year U.S. Trea