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Market Outlook 2019

Posted By Lineweaver Financial Group
January 07, 2019 Category: Market Outlook, 2019, Market, Financial Goals

By Chad Roope CFA®, Lead Portfolio Manager - Fundamentum The recent equity market correction has no doubt been uncomfortable.  As of the end of year close, the S&P 500 ended the year to date down 6.24%. Concerns about slowing global economic growth, worries that the Federal Reserve is pushing interest rates too far too quickly, fears around the US/China trade war and uncertainties about a US Government shut down have all combined to create downside volatility that we’ve not experienced in a few years.   While we agree this is all concerning and that we are likely to continue to see more volatility in the shorter-run, we do not see an economic recession in 2019 based on the data we see today.  US corporate earnings growth is likely to be reasonably strong in the first half of 2019, manufacturing data remains in expansionary readings in the US, US unemployment continues to be at historically low levels, and consumer confidence remains relatively high as well. Those are all good signs as well as the fact that many companies are flush with cash, and the recent tax package gives incentives for them to invest this cash in the economy. When taken as a whole, that leads us to believe that the present sell-off is a necessary flushing of the system and growth stocks that may have gotten a bit ahead of themselves.   In addition, we are coming off a mid-term election, which has historically been good news for markets.  According to Ned Davis Res