Category: Conflict
North Korea and the Market
August 21, 2017 We know that many of you have been interested in the events unfolding between President Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un. Keep in mind that: Rhetoric does not necessarily equal action: No doubt there has been much bluster in the media lately between President Trump and North Korea’s Leader, Kim Jong-un. We should keep in mind, however, that rhetoric is not the same as action. Rest assured that military policy decisions are not being based on President Trump’s tweets or Kim Jong-un’s statements. President Trump is surrounded by a strong cabinet of highly accomplished and highly experienced military leaders including Gen. James Mattis, Gen. John Kelly, and Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster. We should trust these leaders to guide our Nation through times of crisis. Market performance in times of conflict: History provides relevant context with respect to market performance in times of conflict. Since 1900, there have been 7 major geopolitical crises that have included armed conflict (WWI, WWII, Korean War, Vietnam War, First Gulf War, September 11th, Second Gulf War). Market performance during these periods can be described as mixed at best. In fact, markets rose more during periods of conflict than they fell. For example, from the start of WWI in 1914 through its conclusion in 1918, the Dow was up more than 40% or close to 9% annualized. From the start of WWII in 1939 through its end in late 1945, the Dow was up 50% or more than 7
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