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The Return of the Roaring 20s

The Return of the Roaring 20s

Posted By Lineweaver Financial Group
April 26, 2021 Category: General, Finance, Educational, Commentary

When we think about the roaring 20s, nearly a hundred years ago, we all think of a decade of growth and celebration! And there were really 2 reasons for that: The end of World War One and the end of the Spanish Flu Pandemic. While we don’t have the end of a major war, we are starting to see the end of the pandemic on the horizon and getting closer to herd immunity. But is that enough to kick off the roaring 20s for us again? First, let’s consider this year so far. We had a solid first quarter: the S&P was up 6.2%, the Dow was up 6.8%, and the US lead the world according to the MSCI. Even the Russell 2000 was up 13% in a sign that small caps are recovering. The driver of much of this growth is the growing vaccine numbers- on April 21st, President Biden announced that over 200 million people have received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine. With herd immunity on the horizon, and the likely lifting of restrictions this spring or summer, it’s no surprise to imagine that a lot of people will be traveling, making major purchases, and generally heading out and celebrating. There does appear to be significant pent-up demand – certainly enough to return to normal, and maybe then some besides. The wherewithal to spend is certainly there. As of February, the savings rate in the US was about 13%- double the historical average! So, consumers do seem coiled for recovery, which would affect travel, leisure, housing, and many other sectors of the economy. P

2021 Economic Commentary

2021 Economic Commentary

Posted By Lineweaver Financial Group
April 06, 2021 Category: General, Finance, Educational, Commentary

Vaccine-led Restart The new nominal theme – which flags a more muted response in nominal government bond yields to rising inflation than in the past – has played out since last year. Inflation-adjusted yields, or real yields, have fallen further into negative territory as a result. Additional fiscal spending could turbocharge a vaccine-led economic restart later this year – one that we believe may exceed market expectations. Activity in many services sectors is already compressed with less room to decline further. Businesses have also adapted to an environment of social distancing, allowing operations to continue. Consensus expectations of the size of the shock have been revised down materially, particularly for the euro area. Vaccine rollouts are likely to stoke a sharper-than-anticipated rebound. A Different Shock We see pent-up demand in contact-intense services rebounding sharply once restrictions lift in the U.S. and euro area – as seen in China, and supported by the accumulation in personal savings. U.S. consumers have built up a savings buffer equivalent to more than 12% of annual consumer spending over the past year. Not only is the policy response this time far more overwhelming, but a large part of economic activity will restart on its own once the pandemic is under control, in our view. This is a key difference with the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The objective of the current policy response has been different: it is not to stimulate

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