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Economic Commentary: Q4 2019

Autumn breezes: Change in seasons — and markets
The return of fall offers cooler temperatures—but a shifting market environment. Dovish central bank policies may extend the long economic expansion, but against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions and trade disputes contributing to slower growth. Investors are responding by seeking to boost portfolio resilience to withstand volatility. Our take on the major investor themes for the weeks ahead:

U.S. equities: Technology: The cyclical versus the secular
With the economy in the late stages of the business cycle, we continue to favor a moderately pro-risk posture in U.S. equities. Technology remains one of our preferred sectors, but it is important to recognize that some sectors are more tied to the business cycle (like semiconductors), while others may benefit from long-term tailwinds (like software).

Developed markets: Upgrading Europe
We are upgrading the region from underweight to neutral. The European Central Bank’s fresh monetary stimulus could provide a tailwind for equities. We believe the negative sentiment toward the region may be overdone (while recognizing obvious risks) when comparing Europe’s risk to emerging markets and its valuations to U.S. equities.

Emerging markets: Latin America in focus
We have downgraded emerging markets to neutral, but we see opportunities in Latin America. Valuations are attractive for many of the region’s economies compared to other emerging markets, particularly with respect to earnings expectations. We are not sanguine about the risk of trade tensions but note that easing financial conditions and progress on political reform have already helped drive asset prices this year.

Fixed income: Navigating the fall in rates
The Federal Reserve’s 180-degree pivot from rate hikes to rate cuts has had a significant impact on fixed income markets. Still, we believe this is an important time to strengthen the ballast in one’s portfolio through quality fixed income investments, namely investment grade bonds and agency mortgage-backed securities.

Factors: Min vol goes viral
After a challenging start to the year, both minimum volatility and momentum stocks outperformed the broader market in the second quarter. This reinforces how investors are looking to build resilience in their portfolios, while not missing out on market rallies. Min vol valuations appear stretched at this point, while momentum valuations are supportive.
 

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Economic Commentary: Q4 2019

By Lineweaver Financial Group
September 24, 2019 Category: General

Autumn breezes: Change in seasons and markets The return of fall offers cooler temperaturesbut a shifting market environment. Dovish central bank policies may extend the long economic expansion, but against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions and trade disputes contributing to slower growth. Investors are responding by seeking to boost portfolio resilience to withstand volatility. Our take on the major investor themes for the weeks ahead: U.S. equities: Technology: The cyclical versus the secular With the economy in the late stages of the business cycle, we continue to favor a moderately pro-risk posture in U.S. equities. Technology remains one of our preferred sectors, but it is important to recognize that some sectors are more tied to the business cycle (like semiconductors), while others may benefit from long-term tailwinds (like software). Developed markets: Upgrading Europe We are upgrading the region from underweight to neutral. The European Central Banks fresh monetary

HealthWatch: Avoiding Healthcare Scams

By Lineweaver Financial Group
September 24, 2019 Category: General

Shopping for health insurance is a daunting process that has gotten more confusing, as plans that do not meet the Affordable Care Acts benefit requirements for comprehensive insurance become more available. If youre shopping for full health insurance, your best bet is to be a smart and cautious shopper. Here are some tips: 1. Check the URL The best way to know youre in the right place is to double (triple!) check the URL, which is the website address. The federal marketplace website is healthcare.gov. Search engine ads often use healthcare.gov in the hyperlinked text that people click on to get to the website, but look closely at the URL just below to see the actual website address. 2. Check for a Disclosure Insurance quote websites are required to note that they are not affiliated with the government, though this detail is often in small print at the bottom of the page. The privacy statement at the bottom will give more information about who owns the website. 3. Dont Give Out Your Phone

Letter From the President Q42019

By Lineweaver Financial Group
September 24, 2019 Category: General

Many of you may have seen our special Financial Quarterback Episode (with special guest, my daughter Delaney) about helping your kids and grandkids get started investing. We look at investing as a great way to reinforce the ideas of goal setting, saving, and budgeting. And it can help your kids or grandkids on the long-term path to financial independence. We always start our investing with a family meeting. The first thing we do is look at companies we like who make things were familiar with and use. For example, we use Apple phones, watch Netflix at home, and my kids wear clothing from Lululemon and Nike. I have three kids, so each of them was able to pick four stocks. Instead of fighting over the stocks, we decided to take a pooled approach to the money. I didnt want one child to substantially gain or lose more than the others, so we decided to have them all share in the total gains. We get together several times a year, which keeps us focused on what we chose and how well its doing. It

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