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Market Update: 2019 in Review

Market Update: 2019 in Review

Posted By Lineweaver Financial Group
May 30, 2019 Category: Market Update, Chad Roope

We spend a lot of time analyzing the market’s history, the macroeconomy, and many other aspects of the financial markets; and while past performance doesn’t always indicate future performance, there are a lot of good indicators that will help us to look forward.  The fourth quarter of 2018 was the S & P 500’s third worst in history, while the first quarter of 2019 was the best first quarter in 21 years. The Fed’s complete U-Turn with interest rate policy and the massive Chinese stimulus of around $1T USD really has played a big part in that change in sentiment. Earnings have been a positive surprise so far this quarter as well. Earnings so far for Q1 have been generally good with 78% of companies reporting a positive EPS.  But, to be fair, these numbers are coming on low expectations. Q1 was very good with all 3 months in positive territory.  In the prior 22 times this has happened, the market was higher about 91% of the time during the next 9 months.  So, history would suggest there’s a decent likelihood of continued gains.  But, there also may be some challenges up ahead. Specifically, the yield curve inversion in March.  Typically, if the yield curve, which is the relationship between stocks and bonds, stays inverted, one begins to worry about recession.  The good news is that the curve has steepened, and we no longer have the 10 year/3-month inversion now. However, there is some concern about German

The Year in Review: 2016 Market Summary

Posted By Lineweaver Financial Group
January 12, 2017 Category: 1st Quarter, Newsletter, Market Review, 2016 Market, Market Update

It’s difficult to predict the market over the short term, and 2016 has proven that point. Here are a few things that surprised the markets this year. Interest rates remain mainly unchanged for the year. In December 2015 the Fed increased interest rates for the first time in 9 years, and indicated plans to raise rates slowly in 2016. Due to concerns about less than robust economic growth, rates have remained at historic lows. Only post-election have interest rate sensitive sectors moved in  response to anticipated rate increases in 2017. Late year rising bond yields during the quarter resulted in outright declines in bond-proxy sectors, such as utilities, staples, and real estate. In 2015 the China stock market declined, setting off global market declines and a return to volatility, but by late year that was all behind  us – or so we thought.  2016 started with another steep sell-off in the Chinese stock market which in turn caused global markets to sell off. World markets also tumbled after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. Investors lost more than the equivalent of 2 trillion United States dollars on June 24, 2016, making this day the worst single day drop in history according to data from S&P Global. The losses were extended to a combined total of the equivalent of 3 trillion dollars by additional selling on June 27, 2016, also according to data from S&P Global. Fortunately, that sell-off was short lived, and within

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