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How do elections affect the stock market?

Given the upcoming presidential election in 2024, we thought it would be a great time to look at data from prior election cycles.  We think minimizing emotions and focusing on data is critical when investing.  As can be seen in the charts below, whichever party holds office has not typically had much bearing on investment performance over time.

Bar chart showing U.S. stock returns from 1926 to 2023, with $1,000 growing to $14,567,541. The chart alternates blue and red sections to indicate Democrat and Republican presidencies; trend shows consistent growth regardless of party.


Infographic with two line graphs showing that $1,000 invested in the stock market over 100 and 70 years grows similarly regardless of the ruling political party, highlighting long-term market growth.


Bar chart showing average annual returns of U.S. stocks from 1/1/26–12/31/23: all years 10.3%, presidential election years 11.6%, mid-term elections 7.4%, non-election years 14.8%. Noted: U.S. stocks +26.3% in 2023.
Source: BlackRock  

Given this data, we encourage investors to try to tune out the political noise as best as possible in 2024 while maintaining exposure to the market.  There will no doubt be volatility throughout this election year, but if history is any guide, staying invested regardless of the election rhetoric and outcome is likely to reward patient investors.  

Should you have any questions about your individual portfolio, please don’t hesitate to reach out to one of our team members or your advisor. We’re here to help!  

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